Fundamental review of the week from 01.06. year to 05.06.2009

The week begins with retail sales in Australia in April. The sector enjoyed solid sales in recent months as the combination of fiscal and monetary incentives "otduha 'consumer portfolios. Over the past months, signs of improving the overall consumer confidence also support retail. By continuing incentives (in the form of fiscal variations) during April, and total disappearance of the speculator market during this period we expect a new sound-percent increase in sales for the month. Later PMI index of European countries and the euro will show whether improvements in the Old Continent and may lead to new "bichi movement in favor of the euro. The main index of U.S. consumer spending for April will also be removed - the capacity and extend the recession reduced price to a point of deterioration and inflation pressure down during the next 12 months. But it is proven that this will show a little more slowly in the data, based on inflation, which has stabilized recently. Manufacturing index recovered from 28-year bottomed in 32.9 in 40.1 Dkemvri it for April, which was the lowest for the past 18 years, if the last 6 months were never happen.

On Tuesday the Swiss GDP may help to "rally" in the franc and the pair dollar / Frank down to below 1.0400, if any improvement in the Swiss economy. Mortgage loans approved in the UK 11:30 will give us a clearer picture of England and if there is resurgence in the credit sector. Pounds are expected to be extremely volatile on its main krosove. Unemployment rate of the euro is expected to increase compared to the previous period, which may slow down upward movement of the euro against the dollar, but we assume that this will be only short-term correction in favor of the state currency. Unsold U.S. homes go 17:00 on Tuesday and will reveal whether there is a chance the U.S. construction sector to show any effect.

On Wednesday morning PMI index released by the European countries and we suggest that management's confidence in the sector has improved, and if so, to support the euro in the news. Then the UK also exports its PMI index, and decrease it may weaken pounds short. U.S. ISM index afternoon - the decline in services is no longer so sharp, even refund is quite sharp. Shows continued improvement for profits, but we see that the ISM is less important for obrashtaemostta inventory and probably more frustrating than production data.

Thursday, we expect highly volatile session for the main doubles as removal of the decisions of the Central Bank interest rates in the euro area, UK and Canada then. ECB will not surprise us, and levels are expected to remain unchanged to 1.00 percent, but there is little chance for reduction of 25 basis points to 0.75 percent and if this happens will quickly lead over euro 1.5000 against the dollar. Predvaritelniet studies show that the interest of England will also remain unchanged since the British economy shows signs of improvement and the government prefers to maintain a 0.5%. Canada to suggest that because the strong Canadian dollar against major opponents.

On Friday will be removed from the CPI and the Swiss can support Frank during the morning session. Later that day Zaetostta in non-agricultural sector for the month of May and the unemployment rate (9.2 percent expected) are expected to be exported. Like most recent statistics, wages seem to be prepared to show improvement. Weekly initial jobless claims to step back slightly from recent peaks and indicators of labor market improve. But levels continue to grow and the level of unemployment nearing 10 percent. We believe that these figures reflect more on the demand in the economy and will be too slow to improve it will continue to be key challenges for households and politicians.

Daily Technical Analysis 28.05.2009

EUR/USD



U.S. dollar continued to man in the Asian session, as we expect to maintain and test the downward movement of price in the area of support at 1.3722, which now appears stable enough to reduce a significant growth of green money. In support of the estimates appear to fall down values of stochastic indicator and MACD. In the opposite option, enhancing the confidence of traders in the green money will direct cost to resisting 1.3860 and 1.4050.

USD/JPY



U.S. dollar rise in price by almost one cent against the Japanese currency during the Asian session, as the expectation is directed to test resistance at 96.70, in the case of addressing, the path to the next key level to 97.80 will be opened. In the opposite option, move in the direction favorable to the yen will give support to the daily movement in 95.50.

GBP/USD






U.S. dollar appreciation against the register pound in Asian session, after the end of U.S. session yesterday, the currency pair recorded its highest value since November. New growth of sterling will aim at overcoming the top 1.6080 and the test area at levels around 1.6490. In the opposite option, a new appreciation of the U.S. dollar will direct the daily movement in support to 1.5775.

USD/CHF





The currency pair is trading near support at 1.0920, which in the case of endurance will allow for new growth of green money and will activate the double bottom formation with targets resistance at 1.0928 and 1.1057. In the opposite option, passing the price back below 1.0920 will direct the daily traffic to support 1.0805.

Daily Technical Analysis 26.05.2009

EUR/USD





The currency pair euro / dollar retains trade within narrow limits despite sharp corrections with unclear direction in the Asian stock session. The price continues to trade at the upper limit of the rising price channel adjacent to the area for sale. If the trend of appreciation of the single currency is supported by maintaining stochastic oscillator, we may become witnesses to break the key resistance at 1.4060 followed by 1.4101. In turn option of purchasing a new wave of green money in order to gain quick adjustment would support 1.3722 and reaching the lower price limit rising price channel.


USD/JPY



The currency pair dollar / yen keeps trade in narrow range near the top line of the output price channel. Stochastic oscillator shows "O sword" in order to move the lower limit of the trend. If prices break key resistance 95.21 lasting correction will be directed in support of green money, but if the number of failed attempts do not lead to a correction we can expect the preservation and consolidation of support reached 93.79.

GBP/USD




The currency pair pound / dollar continues to make a test in which the limit of resistance is the upper half of the rising price channel. Break of 1.5900 key resistance situation would lead to permanent retention of the trend of appreciation of the pound. Unsuccessful attempt to break resistance and decreasing movement in the currency pair euro / dollar would change the direction of movement in favor of green money to support at least 1.5278. Histogramata MACD is in support of our expectation for a reduction in the price of sterling to form a downward divergence

USD/CHF





The currency pair continued its upward movement, our expectations are to maintain the trade in decreasing trend with a slight preponderance of dollars and reaching the upper limit of the channel. Stochastic oscillator and the MACD histogramata are in support of adjustment for the green money and reach resistance at the upper limit of the decreasing price channel.

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Daily Technical Analysis 25.05.2009

EUR/USD



The currency pair euro / dollar retains trade within narrow limits in the vicinity of the upper trend line of rising price channel. Continuing the trend of appreciation of the single currency will direct adjustment to the break of key resistance 1.4101. In return option reverse direction and continue the signals from technical indicators MACD and Stochastic for reversing the trend would lead to a trade test in the lower limit of the upward channel, and would target the quotations in the area purchasing


USD/JPY




Japanese yen continued its appreciation against the U.S. currency, despite its temporary weakness in the stock Asian session after prices failed to keep below the psychological level of ¥ 95 for a dollar. Uncertainties about the economic situation in the U.S., will lead to a new wave of repatriation of funds and providing quotes to drop until at least the lower limit of the decreasing price channel .. MACD histogramata a 'bicha "divergence, and if it is confirmed by overcoming 95.15 will expect rise in quotations to a level of technical resistance at 97.89.


GBP/USD





British pound continued to test levels of resistance around 1.5900. Sustained break of this critical level will lead to continuous adjustment of the trend change. Save quotes below the upper limit of the rising price channel will undergo a pounds pressure and the correction will result in the 1.5278 area. In support of the downward adjustment are histogramata MACD and stochastic oscillator, which are "sword" configuration

USD/CHF




The currency pair continued its downward movement, are expected to maintain downward consolidation and reached 1.0850 area where you will be purchasing will be in order of decreasing upper price channel. Histogramata MACD and stochastic oscillator in "bicha" configuration, and show appreciation of the short green money.